The MLB season is heating up as we approach the July 30th trade deadline. All 30 teams are in action today. We have a few thrilling matchups on the docket. Below I’ll dive into three games from a betting perspective and let you know where I’m laying my cash on the diamond.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers (+114) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-135) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Rangers dropped the series opener 6-5 last night, snapping a five-game win streak in the process. They’ll turn to Michael Lorenzen as they look to get back in the win column today. The Blue Jays counter with Kevin Gausman in this American League showdown, which is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
It’s a bit of a head-scratcher as to why the Jays are such a decently-sized favorite in this matchup. They’ve been a below-average team all year, and they’re just 3-4 since the All-Star break. I can’t pass up on the plus-money payout that comes with the champs in this spot, so I’ll ride with the Rangers on the Moneyline.
Gausman hasn’t lived up to the hype this season, as he enters the weekend 8-8 with a 4.55 ERA (61st) and a 1.30 WHIP (55th). Texas’ current roster has found success against him in the past, slashing .288/.368/.519 over 104 at-bats. On the flip side, Lorenzen (3.53 ERA) has limited Toronto’s current roster to a slash line of .077/.200/.154 over 13 at-bats. Let’s back the upward-trending Rangers to get back to their winning ways tonight.
Bet: Rangers Moneyline (+114)
Seattle Mariners (-148) vs. Chicago White Sox (+124) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
The Mariners cruised to a 10-0 victory against the White Sox last night, issuing Chicago its 12th straight defeat. The two sides are back at it this evening with a pitching matchup between Bryan Woo and Erick Fedde. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, IL.
Well, these are two of the worst offenses in the MLB, so I’m going to play the under. Over the last 14 days, Seattle is ranked 27th in both wRC+ (78) and wOBA (.271), while Chicago is dead last in both categories (46, .232). To put in perspective how bad Chicago’s offense is, wRC+ is measured off a baseline score of 100, meaning the average offense receives a score of 100. The White Sox are essentially less than half as productive as the average offense right now. Over their 12-game slide, they’re averaging a measly 1.7 runs per game.
They’ll also be running into Bryan Woo, who has been lights out with a 2.54 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 10 starts (49.2 innings) this season. Meanwhile, Fedde gets the nod for the Sox, a name constantly coming up in trade talks. The right-hander has been fantastic this year, going 7-3 with a 2.98 ERA (13th) and a 1.11 WHIP (27th). At home, those numbers dip to 1.47 and 0.94, respectively, while opponents are hitting just .200 against him. Let’s play the under in the Windy City this evening.
Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-115)
New York Yankees (-112) vs. Boston Red Sox (-108) | O/U 10.0 (-108/-112)
The Red Sox earned a 9-7 win in last night’s series opener with the Yankees. Boston’s now just 5.5 games out of first place in the vaunted American League East. The rivals square off again tonight and the pitching matchup features a battle between Marcus Stroman and Kutter Crawford. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
Crawford is the Yankees’ kryptonite. The right-hander has owned them throughout his career, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .141/.187/.268 over 71 at-bats. He has made two starts against New York this season, logging quality starts in both outings. Over the 13.0 innings, Crawford has conceded just three earned runs on six hits and two walks. Overall this year, the 28-year-old brings in a respectable 3.37 ERA (26th) and 1.05 WHIP (16th).
On the other hand, Stroman (3.51 ERA) has also fared well against Boston in his career. The right-hander has held their current lineup to a slash line of .164/.250/.180 over 61 at-bats. He has only allowed one XBH to the Red Sox, which was a double to Tyler O’Neill. This total of 10.0 runs seems pretty lofty for a pitching matchup between two guys who’ve dominated the head-to-head category. I’m playing the under in Boston tonight.
Bet: Under 10.0 Runs (-112)
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