NFL Week 5 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 5 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

October 4, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 5 kicking off today, here’s a preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

Want access to all our premium NFL predictions, tools, and data this season? Check out our NFL betting picks, NFL pick’em pool picks and NFL survivor pool picks. You can also read an overview of our premium content for football.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s a battle of contrasting strengths between two of the AFC’s best teams when the Jaguars visit Kansas City on Sunday. The Jaguars rebounded from a frustrating 9-6 loss t0 Tennessee in Week 3 to throttle the Jets 31-12, as QB Blake Bortles threw for 388 yards and two touchdowns. The Jekyll and Hyde act for Bortles seems to be continuing this season, contributing to the Jags ranking just 22nd in points scored (22.0 per game) and 14th in yards per pass attempt (7.1). Still, the Jaguars have a chance to continue their positive momentum against a Chiefs defense that ranks eighth worst in points allowed (28.8 per game) and has yielded opponents 451.8 yards per game, worst in the NFL. Star RB Leonard Fournette had yet another setback with his hamstring last week and will miss at least one more game, creating an opportunity for backup T.J. Yeldon to beef up his 4.2 yards per carry average against a defense that has allowed a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry and has been particularly bad over the last two games.

The Chiefs’ messiah has apparently arrived in the form of QB Patrick Mahomes. Playing at a league MVP level through four games, Mahomes notched his first come-from-behind victory on Monday night at Denver. He leads an offense that ranks tops in points per game (36.2) and has an amazing 14 TDs against zero INTs, though a ratio like that is highly unlikely to be sustained. The Jaguars defense will be Mahomes’ stiffest test so far, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (14.0) and yards allowed (259.2). Featuring a pair of Pro Bowl corners and a deep defensive line, the Jaguars look like one of the few teams that can matchup with Kansas City’s bevy of offensive weapons, especially if Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is forced to miss the contest. Jacksonville’s only slight defensive weakness to this point has been their run defense, allowing 4.0 yards per carry (14th), and Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is coming off the best game of his season so far.

Head to Head: The Jaguars lead the all-time series 6-5, dating back to 1997. However, the Chiefs have won the last three contests.

Point Spread on Thursday: Chiefs -3 (after opening at -3.5)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Miami and Cincinnati are two of the league’s biggest surprises at 3-1, though the teams are coming off very different Week 4 results. The Dolphins were demolished 38-7 by New England, while Cincinnati pulled out a late-game win at Atlanta. Miami is hoping to bounce back on the road and show that their early 3-1 start wasn’t a fluke, but they’re big underdogs for the second straight week. Despite the Dolphins’ success in the win-loss column so far, the offense has been lackluster overall, with the seventh worst points per game (20.5) and the third worst yards per game (286.0) in the NFL. While they’ve been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, the Dolphins average less than four yards per carry and have lost center Daniel Kilgore for the season. However, when QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball, the Dolphins have shown efficiency with 7.9 yards per attempt (fifth best), while Cincinnati’s defense has allowed an unimpressive 7.1 yards per pass attempt.

So far this season, Cincinnati’s offense has seen a renaissance, ranking fourth in points per game (31.5). The team’s offensive line improvements in the offseason appear to be paying dividends, as the Bengals rank ninth in yards per rush (4.5) despite missing starting running back Joe Mixon for the last two games. Mixon has a chance to return this week, though Miami’s biggest defensive strength so far has been their ability to stop the run (3.7 yards per attempt allowed). QB Andy Dalton also has two very productive wideouts; Tyler Boyd is having a breakout year, joining the elite A.J. Green to make one of the league’s best wide receiver tandems. Miami’s secondary was exposed last week without starting safety Reshad Jones, and will have further issues to deal with this week after losing slot CB Bobby McCain.

Head to Head: The Bengals won the last matchup in 2016, but the Dolphins had won the previous three games dating back to 2010.

Point Spread on Thursday afternoon: Bengals -5.5 (after opening at -6)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Now we come to a pair of teams who have been early-season disappointments. Minnesota fell to 1-2-1 after a Thursday Night loss at the Rams, while the Super Bowl champion Eagles are just 2-2 after falling to the Titans in overtime. Philadelphia’s offense has had its fair share of injuries this season, but was at full strength last week for the first time this season with QB Carson Wentz, RB Jay Ajayi, and WR Alshon Jeffery all on the field. Philly still managed only 20 points during regulation, showing a pass-heavy game plan with 50 pass attempts and only 22 rush attempts. The Eagles now face a so far disappointing Vikings defense that was embarrassed by Rams QB Jared Goff last week. After the Vikings defense ranked No. 1 in yards allowed last year, they’ve allowed the 12th most yards and 11th most points per game through four weeks. Philly may continue to air it out this week with Minnesota allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt so far.

Still, no team has aired it out more than Minnesota. The Vikings have passed the ball more than 73% of the time this season, though partly out of necessity, often playing from behind in recent weeks and struggling to get production out of Latavius Murray and an injured Dalvin Cook at running back.  The Vikings rank third worst in the NFL with 3.5 yards per carry, and will be facing an Eagles defense that has held opposing running games to 3.4 yards per rush attempt. So it would be a bit of a surprise if Minnesota balances out their offense this week given Philadelphia’s defensive strengths, as well as the so-so play of the Eagles cornerbacks to this point. QB Kirk Cousins has put up good numbers despite the Vikings’ win-loss record, with 1,387 yards and 10 TDs against 2 INTs.

Head to Head: The Eagles have won the last two matchups, including last year’s NFC Championship. The Vikings won the two games before that, dating back to 2010.

Point Spread on Thursday afternoon: Eagles -3

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Betting NFL Week 5? Game winner, point spread, over/under and money line value picks from our algorithmic models are now available for all NFL Week 5 games. See our premium NFL betting picks.

 

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook