Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs Rebound — NFL Week 8 Rankings & Projections

Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs Rebound — NFL Week 8 Rankings & Projections (2019)

October 22, 2019 – by Seth Trachtman

Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys are in a good spot in the NFC East. (Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Dallas, LA Rams, and Kansas City.

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NFL Week 8 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 8. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Dallas	NFC East	W vs. Philadelphia 37-10	14	11	1.3	3.2	1.9
LA Rams	NFC West	W at Atlanta 37-10	7	5	3.1	4.9	1.8
Kansas City	AFC West	W at Denver 30-6	4	3	5.5	7.1	1.6
Baltimore	AFC North	W at Seattle 30-16	11	8	2.4	3.9	1.5
Miami	AFC East	L at Buffalo 31-21	32	32	-17.2	-16.0	1.3

After Dallas suffered an embarrassing loss at the Jets in Week 6, they came back to blow out the division rival Eagles. It’s certainly been a Jekyll and Hyde season for the Cowboys, who have ranked as high as No. 7 and as low as No. 14 in our predictive rankings.

The Rams ended a three-game losing streak to defeat the struggling Falcons by 27 points on the road. They put in a dominant defensive performance with the help of new cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and are now up to No. 5 in our predictive rankings.

Miami makes a rare appearance on a positive list. They lost 31-21 at Buffalo, but that loss was far better than expectations, as the Dolphins were whopping 20.5-point underdogs on the road, according to our predictive ratings.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 8 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 8:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Dallas	NFC East	W vs. Philadelphia 37-10	8.0	9.0	0.9
Baltimore	AFC North	W at Seattle 30-16	9.2	10.1	0.9
New Orleans	NFC South	W at Chicago 36-25	10.6	11.5	0.9
LA Rams	NFC West	W at Atlanta 37-10	8.9	9.7	0.8
Kansas City	AFC West	W at Denver 30-6	10.0	10.8	0.8

Baltimore picked up an unexpected win at Seattle to improve their record to 5-2, halfway to their now projected 10 win total. The Ravens have now won three straight games.

New Orleans is a remarkable 5-0 without Drew Brees, winning easily at Soldier Field thanks in large part to their defense and Mitchell Trubisky’s struggles. They trail only San Francisco in projected wins among NFC teams, with Brees expected to return from his thumb injury soon.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 8 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Div Win Odds Change
Dallas	NFC East	W vs. Philadelphia 37-10	37.1%	65.7%	28.6%
Kansas City	AFC West	W at Denver 30-6	71.6%	89.5%	18.0%
Baltimore	AFC North	W at Seattle 30-16	56.9%	72.1%	15.2%
Indianapolis	AFC South	W vs. Houston 30-23	24.0%	38.8%	14.8%
New Orleans	NFC South	W at Chicago 36-25	59.1%	70.1%	11.0%

Dallas has a nice cushion in the struggling NFC East after defeating the Eagles, now one game ahead in the standings at 4-3 and currently owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The two teams will play again in Week 16. The Cowboys also got slight boosts with the Giants and Redskins losing in Week 7.

While the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to a knee injury, they still easily defeated the Broncos on the road, while the Raiders and Chargers also lost. Even with Mahomes set to miss time, the Chiefs look like the overwhelming favorites to claim the AFC West at nearly 90%.

The Colts got a huge win over the Texans, but the AFC South still looks like a dog fight. We still give Houston an ever-so-slight 1% edge (40%) to win the division over the Colts, but both teams are projected for 9.2 wins.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 8 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Playoffs Odds Change
Dallas	NFC East	W vs. Philadelphia 37-10	39.4%	67.4%	27.9%
LA Rams	NFC West	W at Atlanta 37-10	32.1%	48.6%	16.5%
Baltimore	AFC North	W at Seattle 30-16	66.1%	81.1%	15.0%
Indianapolis	AFC South	W vs. Houston 30-23	41.7%	56.7%	15.0%
New Orleans	NFC South	W at Chicago 36-25	71.0%	85.8%	14.8%

Dallas now has a better than 2-in-3 chance of making the playoffs, even with just a nine-win projection. Thank goodness for the NFC East.

The Rams currently stand in third place in the far more difficult NFC West behind San Francisco and Seattle, but they still have nearly a 50% shot to make the playoffs. Already 2.5 games back of the 49ers, the Wild Card is looking like LA’s only realistic path. At the moment, they are competing with the Seahawks, Panthers, and Vikings for those two Wild Card spots.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for keeping last year’s momentum going despite the Ravens transitioning to a new offense and losing significant talent on defense. At 5-2, Baltimore has a 2.5 game lead in the AFC North, and their 10.1 win projection is fourth best in the AFC.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 8, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 8 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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