Canada vs Chile Odds, Predictions & Lineups for 2024 Copa America

Jun 25, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Canada forward Cyle Larin (9) reacts during the first half of a Copa America match against Peru at Children’s Mercy Park. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsCanada only needs a draw against Chile on Saturday to advance to the knockout stage at the 2024 Copa AmericaChile would advance with a win as long as Peru doesn’t beat ArgentinaBelow, see the Canada vs Chile odds, predictions, and projected starting lineups for June 29

A massive game in Group A takes place in Orlando on Saturday night when Canada (1-0-1) and Chile (0-1-1) meet at Inter & Co Stadium at 8:00 pm ET.

With a win or a draw, Canada would make history and advance to its first ever knockout stage at the Copa America. Two-time champion and four-time runner-up Chile needs a victory to progress to the quarterfinals.

The three-way Canada vs Chile odds give the Chileans much shorter odds to win, but they are still in plus-money to pick up the three points they need to advance.

Canada vs Chile Odds

Chile is priced at +113 to win with Canada is +284 to secure its second straight victory. The draw is listed at +242.

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Odds as of June 28 at bet365. Claim the bet365 promo code to wager on Canada vs Chile on June 29. 

While Canada is slightly favored to advance from Group A to the quarterfinals, Chile is still well ahead of the Canadians in the odds to win the tournament. Chile is currently listed at +3000 in the Copa America odds with Canada at +6500.

There is no relevant head-to-head history between Canada and Chile. Chile holds a 2-1-1 edge in four all-time meetings, but the teams haven’t met since 1995.

Canada Recent Results

Canada kept its qualification hopes alive and well on Tuesday with a 1-0 win over Peru in Kansas City. The Peruvians had the better of the play in the first half – generating five shots (two on target) to just one (none on target) for Canada, while controlling 53% of possession – but undisciplined play was Peru’s undoing. After Marcos Lopez escaped a sure red card for a headbutt in the first half, Miguel Araujo was shown red early in the second for an ugly spikes-first tackle.

Once Canada was up a man, they took full advantage, generating 1.21 xGF in the final 45 minutes including the team’s first goal under new coach Jesse Marsch, who was hired on May 13.

Canada had been shutout in a pair of friendlies away at Netherlands (4-0) and France (0-0) before a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Argentina in the Copa opener in Marsh’s first three matches at the helm.

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Chile Recent Results

If Chile is going to advance on Saturday, it will have to do something it has yet to do this tournament: score a goal. A nil-nil draw with Peru last Friday was followed by a heartbreaking 1-0 defeat against Argentina on Tuesday, when super-sub Lautaro Martinez scored the winner in the 89th minute.

While the result was devastating, it wasn’t unwarranted. Argentina generated 2.87 xGF during the 90-plus minutes (to just 0.14 for Chile) and it was a minor miracle that the Chilean didn’t lose by multiple goals. Argentina finished the game with 59% of possession and 22 shot attempts while Chile had three attempts (all on target).

Prior to the Copa, Chile had been dreadfully inconsistent, going 3-3-4 in its ten previous matches, including impressive wins over Paraguay (3-0 home) and Albania (3-0 neutral) but ugly losses to Venezueal (3-0 away) and Uruguay (3-1).

Chile had scored multiple goals in three straight friendlies building up to the tournament (eight goals total), but that followed on the heels of three straight shutouts in 2026 World Cup qualification.

Canada vs Chile Projected Lineups

Neither team is dealing with any suspensions from the prior game. I expect Chile to revert back to the 4-2-3-1 formation it employed against Peru, needing to press the attack as it does. Canada is likely to go back to the 4-4-2 it used against Argentina, and both its friendlies against France and the Netherlands. The big question is whether Tajon Buchanan is fit enough to start or whether Richie Laryea will take his place in the starting 11 again, as he did against Peru.

Canada vs Chile Prediction

After an ugly defensive showing against the Netherlands, Canada showed against France that it can hold elite attacks off the board, and the first half against Argentina drove home that point. Their defensive structure late against ten-men Peru left a lot to be desired, and Maxime Crepeau was forced into multiple outstanding saves he never should have had to make, but they way Chile has been spurning chances in the last 180 minutes,  I love Canada’s chances to get the point they need to progress.

CAN vs CHI picks: 

First half under 0.5 (+150) at FanDuel SportsbookUnder 2.5 (-165) at DraftKings SportsbookCanada +0.5 (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 17-5 (+13.52 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise

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